Scientists warn that the world is likely to breach the 1.5c climate change threshold as soon as 2027. According to the Paris Agreement, which was set back in 2015, its main goal was to halt the increase in global temperatures well below 2c above pre-industrialised levels and actively pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to not more than 1.5C above pre-industrialised levels.
The year 2027 is only four years away. The fact we would be hitting this ceiling of 1.5c so soon is alarming. The world is almost certain to experience new record temperatures over the next five years, and temperatures are now more likely to rise above 1.5c of pre-industrialised levels.
While a rise above 1.5c will have a dire outcome for the world, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the rise will only be temporary, but these ‘temporary’ spikes may increase in frequency in the coming decades.
Global surface temperatures have never breached the 1.5c threshold. The closest we have come to is 1.28c. The report, published by the World Meteorological Organisation, found there was a 66% possibility of exceeding the 1.5C threshold in at least one year between 2023 and 2027.
Predictions & Statistics:
Despite the probability of these temperature breaches only being temporary, there are already concerning changes taking place. For example, the rate of temperature rise over the last half a century is the highest in 2,000 years. It’s expected that by the year 2100, extreme coastal flooding that used to happen once every 100 years is expected to occur at least once a year in 50% of the world’s tidal gauge locations – places where sea level recordings are made. Furthermore, the world is now warmer than at any other time in the past 125,000 years. If you think 125,000 years is an unfathomable time frame, consider the fact concentrations of carbon pollution in the atmosphere are now at their highest level for more than two million years.
All this is clear evidence that our planet is showing signs of damage.
COP27:
It’s only been six months since COP27, the UN Climate Change Conference, which took place in Egypt in November 2022 where Alok Sharma (President for COP26 from 2021 to 2022) was quoted as saying that this COP (27) could be the one where we lose 1.5C, meaning the world is probably not going to keep global warming temperatures to a maximum of 1.5C. “We’ll either leave Egypt having kept 1.5C alive, or this will be the Cop where we lose 1.5C,” he mentioned.
Fast forward six months. His warning is now being quantified by scientists. The sad fact is that we will be, in all probability, exceeding the 1.5c threshold – albeit only for temporary periods. We don’t know how long or short these periods will be or what the full impact of these spikes will be.
COP28:
This November, governments from around the world will again get together for the COP28, which will take place from 30th November to 12th December in Dubai. Here they will review the progress towards meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. It’s likely to show the world is off track to lower greenhouse gases by the agreed 43% this decade.
